Live Polymarket Arbitrage Scanner

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Pick an event on the left to see the arbitrage math.

If you bought one share of every possible answer right now

waiting

You would pay

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for one full set

You would get back

$1.00

guaranteed — exactly one answer wins

Your profit
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per one-set bet

What if you bought more?

$0.80 — you'd pocket 20¢ per set $1.00 — break-even $1.20 — overpriced

The possible answers and what the market thinks of each

Each row is one possible answer. The percentage is the market's current estimate of that answer being correct — because a $0.72 share pays $1 when it wins, it must be priced at roughly a 72% probability.

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Questions you probably have

What is Polymarket?

Polymarket is an online betting site for real-world questions — elections, sports, Fed meetings, crypto prices, award shows. Each question has a list of possible answers, and each answer is a share you can buy. When the real-world event resolves, shares of the winning answer pay exactly $1, and every other share pays $0. The price of a share is basically the market's guess at how likely that answer is.

Why does "buying one share of every answer" always pay $1?

Because exactly one answer can win. If the event has four possible outcomes (say: "25 bps up", "no change", "25 bps down", "50+ bps down") and you own one share of each, then whatever happens, you hold the winning share — and that share pays $1. The other three pay $0. You paid for all four, but only the winner matters.

So where's the free money?

If the total cost of buying one of every answer drops below $1, you're guaranteed to make the difference. Example: if the four answers cost 60¢, 30¢, 7¢, and 2¢ — total 99¢ — you pay 99¢ now and receive exactly $1 later, no matter which one wins. That's a risk-free 1¢ profit on every $1 you bet.

Why am I seeing "no free money" every time I check?

Because the math is public and professional trading bots watch it too. The moment the total dips below $1, they instantly buy every outcome and push the price back up. Arbitrage on big, popular Polymarket events is usually closed within milliseconds. A browser page running on your laptop is not going to beat them.

This demo exists to show how the math works and how often the opportunities actually appear. Watching it produce nothing for 30 minutes is more informative than a fake demo that flashes profits every second.

Is this actually live?

Yes. Your browser opens a WebSocket to Polymarket's public CLOB (the same one their website uses) and receives real price updates every few milliseconds. The number of price updates received is in the footer below — it ticks up in real time. The event list is refreshed hourly by a GitHub Action so you're always looking at currently-open markets.

Does this page actually trade?

No. This page is read-only. It does not hold money, sign transactions, or submit orders. It's a live view of the math. The full Python bot in the GitHub repo can submit real orders, but only with explicit operator configuration and hard risk caps — and even then it defaults to a dry-run mode that logs orders instead of broadcasting them.

Why would I hire the person who built this?

Because the same skills — reading real-time market data, writing low-latency async pipelines, building production-grade risk systems, and shipping interactive demos that explain themselves — solve a lot of other, more lucrative problems than retail arbitrage. If you have a problem that looks like "connect to a streaming API, do math on every event, take action under hard constraints," that's this whole project in one sentence.